A 21% discount to NAV (net asset value) Middlefield Canadian Income Trust (MCT) presents exciting potential upside for investors. Focused on generating high income from great Canadian businesses, this trust has faced a headwind from rising rates and has posted a negative one-year share price total return of 12.6%.
However, the fund has returned 32.4% over five years and managers Dean Orrico and Rob Lauzon now see a ‘generational’ opportunity to buy Canadian dividend stocks, which trade at big discount to US peers despite offering sustainably growing dividends with well-covered yields.
Investors are being paid an attractive 5.4% dividend yield while they wait for a double whammy from a sharp re-rating of portfolio stocks in rate-sensitive sectors including real estate utilities and pipelines, combined with a narrowing of the discount.
This is an interesting time to put money to work in Canada, a new exporter of oil and natural gas blessed with an abundance of critical materials ranging from potash to uranium, aluminum and gold. Equities in Canada, where high immigration is driving economic growth, are at trough valuations as rising rates have caused its divided paying companies to lag growth stocks in 2023.
Inflation in the North American nation is among the lowest in the G7 and with central bank tightening coming to an end, Orrico reckons the scene is set for Canadian shares to outperform US equities. The peak in short term rates should prove particularly positive for the value sectors in which Middlefield Canadian Income invests including real estate, financials and utilities.
Middlefield Canadian Income’s unwavering focus is on stable, profitable, robustly financed companies paying high dividends and despite the global shocks of the past five years, portfolio dividend growth has worked out at 8.9% per year with 88% of the fund’s portfolio companies increasing their dividend over this period.
Orrico says Canadian banks have suffered from negative sentiment but are poised to rebound in the first half of 2024 and offer dividend yields averaging 5.7% supported by low payout ratios and high capital reserves.
Canadian REITs are trading at discounts comparable to the lows seen during the Covid pandemic and Great Financial Crisis, despite benefiting from growing demand and constrained supply.
The managers also say momentum is building in the Canadian energy sector, where companies are returning record distributable free cash flows to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
The main drawback of the quarterly dividend paying trust is an ongoing charge which is a little on the high side at 1.34%.
Disclaimer
Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus before investing. You will usually pay brokerage fees to your dealer if you purchase or sell units/shares of investment funds on the Toronto Stock Exchange or other alternative Canadian trading system (an “Exchange”). If the units/shares are purchased or sold on an Exchange, investors may pay more than the current net asset value when buying and may receive less than the current net asset value when selling them. There are ongoing fees and expenses associated with owning units or shares of an investment fund. An investment fund must prepare disclosure documents that contain key information about the fund. You can find more detailed information about the fund in these documents. Mutual funds and investment funds are not guaranteed, their values change frequently and past performance may not be repeated. Certain statements in this disclosure are forward-looking. Forward-looking statements (“FLS”) are statements that are predictive in nature, depend upon or refer to future events or conditions, or that include words such as “may”, “will”, “should”, “could”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “believe”, or “estimate”, or other similar expressions. Statements that look forward in time or include anything other than historical information are subject to risks and uncertainties, and actual results, actions or events could differ materially from those set forth in the FLS. FLS are not guarantees of future performance and are by their nature based on numerous assumptions. Although the FLS contained herein are based upon what Middlefield Funds and the portfolio manager believe to be reasonable assumptions, neither Middlefield Funds nor the portfolio manager can assure that actual results will be consistent with these FLS. The reader is cautioned to consider the FLS carefully and not to place undue reliance on FLS. Unless required by applicable law, it is not undertaken, and specifically disclaimed that there is any intention or obligation to update or revise FLS, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
This material has been prepared for informational purposes only without regard to any particular user’s investment objectives or financial situation. This communication constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any product described herein is suitable or appropriate for you. Investment decisions should be made with guidance from a qualified professional. The opinions contained in this report are solely those of Middlefield Limited (“ML”) and are subject to change without notice. ML makes every effort to ensure that the information has been derived from sources believed to reliable, but we cannot represent that they are complete or accurate. However, ML assumes no responsibility for any losses or damages, whether direct or indirect which arise from the use of this information. ML is under no obligation to update the information contained herein. This document is not to be construed as a solicitation, recommendation or offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument.